I would say the Russian sanctions risks a significant addition to the illicit tanker pool, and hence more delayed scrapping. Since Russian ports can't accommodate VLCCs, I also wonder if that adds doubt to the "China reopening means higher VLCC demand". But maybe they do the at sea transfer to VLCC thing since it is such a long haul, dunno.
In your valuation section you mostly rely on PE. I would say that metric is mostly ignored in shipping. P/NAV is the most popular, where NAV base is fleet market value. Adjust for discounted future earnings/dividends if it pleases you.
On illicit tanker pool: agreed thats a possibility, although I'm not sure how specifically that would work.
I've heard about the at sea transfers being mentioned by @AllThingsVentured. Potentially, that could mean demand for both Aframax/Suezmax transferring the crude + VLCC itself.
On P/NAV: Agreed. But the PE perspective is enough to show stocks are quite cheap, and earnings form part of the equation for NAV as well I suppose.
Another nice summary, thanks.
I would say the Russian sanctions risks a significant addition to the illicit tanker pool, and hence more delayed scrapping. Since Russian ports can't accommodate VLCCs, I also wonder if that adds doubt to the "China reopening means higher VLCC demand". But maybe they do the at sea transfer to VLCC thing since it is such a long haul, dunno.
In your valuation section you mostly rely on PE. I would say that metric is mostly ignored in shipping. P/NAV is the most popular, where NAV base is fleet market value. Adjust for discounted future earnings/dividends if it pleases you.
On illicit tanker pool: agreed thats a possibility, although I'm not sure how specifically that would work.
I've heard about the at sea transfers being mentioned by @AllThingsVentured. Potentially, that could mean demand for both Aframax/Suezmax transferring the crude + VLCC itself.
On P/NAV: Agreed. But the PE perspective is enough to show stocks are quite cheap, and earnings form part of the equation for NAV as well I suppose.